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Wall Street Transcript
Short Harley Davidson And Research In Motion According To Cottingham Management Company Managing Partner: Demographic Decay And Increased Competition
Monday November 23, 9:19 am ET

67 WALL STREET, New York - November 23, 2009 - The Wall Street Transcript has just published its TWST Investing Strategies Report offering a timely review of the sector to serious investors and industry executives. This 55 page feature contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with highly experienced Money Managers. The full issue is available via The Wall Street Transcript Online.

Topics covered: Investor Demand for Transparency - High-Liquidity Environment - Undervalued High Quality Companies - Inexpensive Valuation - Short Suggestions In Overvalued Growth Stocks - Stretched Balance Sheets - High Returns on Capital - Volume Growth - Multi-Cap Approach - Extreme Value Discipline - Macro Outlook - Value and Momentum - Lower Volatility Growth

Companies include: Belo Corp (BLC); 3M (MMM); A.H. Belo (AHC); Affiliated Computer Services (ACS); American Safety (ASI); Ameriprise (AMP); Apache (APA); Apple (AAPL); Atwood Oceanics (ATW); Bank of America (BAC); Boeing (BA); Brown & Brown (BRO); Bunge (BG); CME Group (CME); Capstead Mortgage (CMO); Chevron (CVX); ChinaCast Education (CAST); Citi Trends (CTRN); Coca-Cola (KO); Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH); Conseco (CNO); Consolidated Edison (ED); Costco (COST); Cypress Semiconductor (CY); Danaher (DHR); Duke Energy (DUK); FARO Technologies (FARO); GIII Apparel (GIII); Gannett (GCI); Gilead Sciences (GILD); Goldman Sachs (GS); Goodrich (GR); Google (GOOG); Halliburton (HAL); Harley-Davidson (HOG); IBM (IBM); IDEX Corporation (IEX); IMS Health (RX); JPMorgan (JPM); Johnson & Johnson (JNJ); Kimberly-Clark (KMB); Kinross (KGC); Legg Mason (LM); NIC Inc. (EGOV); Nestle and Alcon (ACL); New York Times  (NYT); Newmont Mining  (NEM); Owens-Illinois (OI); Penson Worldwide (PNSN); Precision Castparts (PCP); Procter & Gamble, (PG); Rambus (RMBS); Research In Motion (RIMM); Roper Industries (ROP); Schlumberger (SLB); Smucker (SJM); Stein Mart (SMRT); Steven Madden (SHOO); Talisman (TLM); Thermo Fisher Scientific  (TMO); Transocean (RIG); UnitedHealth (UNH); Universal Health Services (UHS); Wal-Mart (WMT); Washington Post (WPO); WellPoint  (WLP); Xcel Energy (XEL); Xerox (XRX); Yamana Gold (AUY).

In the following brief excerpt from just one of the in depth interviews in the 55 page Special Report, a top tier Money Manager discusses the outlook for the market for investors.

Stephen Bick is the Managing Partner of Cottingham Management Company LLC, a San Diego-based financial services company, where he operates as Portfolio Manager of Cottingham Development Fund LLC, a hybrid fund investing predominantly in stocks, commodities and futures. He holds a BA degree in economics from the University of Cape Town and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), a Certified Management Accountant (CMA) and a Certified Insolvency and Restructuring Analyst (CIRA). He worked as a turnaround strategist with Kroll Zolfo Cooper, where he performed business valuations, analyzed the risk in energy trading strategies and was involved with developing plans of reorganization for multibillion-dollar companies. He also ran a $500 million bond fund in London for two years for a German insurance company, and worked as an Analyst for six years, dealing in private and public equity business valuations, commercial litigation and bankruptcy.

TWST: Tell us about the sell process.

Mr. Bick: On the sell side, I'm really looking once again at the macro overlay. My macro outlook currently is based a lot on demographic trends. On the demographic side, we're all getting older. I think I might be the last of the Baby Boom generation, maybe the absolute last person with a foot on the rung of the ladder. But we're all getting older, we're all slowing down, we're all starting to offload our assets rather than accumulate them; people are becoming empty nesters, they are downsizing their properties, etc. Up to now, we have seen significant economic growth as this large demographic has moved through their life cycle, and now we are in a situation where we will have an overhang of an older generation that cannot be supported by a smaller, younger generation. This is a problem for the foreseeable future and should at some point weigh on the markets. In the banking sector, I'm looking at certain banks that are exposed to the commercial side of the market as I also believe that there are numerous problems afoot.

Then on the consumer side, companies like Harley-Davidson (HOG), where most of their growth strategy has been to sell motorbikes to the Baby Boomer generation, while you see a lot of gray hairs out there on their Harleys, at some point that's going to start slowing down. They also have a significant level of debt on their books. This debt is being used to finance the sales of the Harleys but now you have an unemployment rate that's over 10% and a consumer that can barely pay their mortgage. I just think that Harley is in for a long slog to try and get back to a level of growth where they need to be, that supports the current stock price valuation, particularly if they start taking significant write-downs on that loan portfolio. So that would be an example of a short play.

Another company that I'm short is Research In Motion (RIMM), where I've already made a decent amount of money. That short is really driven by the crowding-out in terms of the smart phone business. In that space you have Apple (AAPL), Research In Motion, Palm (PALM), you've got Nokia (NOK) stepping into that space, you've got Motorola (MOT) coming out with a new phone that's tied to the Google (GOOG) operating system. I just feel that the premium that people pay for Research In Motion stock is just way out of line with the growth opportunities, particularly when you factor in that most of the Research In Motion company sales were from the corporate sector, and particularly bankers and that whole sector has really just taken a beating. They are now forced to try and go into the consumer space, and I think they're just way overvalued. Furthermore the chart is looking terrible.

STEPHEN BICK

Cottingham Management Company, LLC.

More of this interview can be obtained via The Wall Street Transcript Online .

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