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Wall Street Transcript
Las Vegas Predictions From MGM CEO Were On The Mark: Q3 Interview Recap
Wednesday November 18, 9:16 am ET

67 WALL STREET, New York - November 18, 2009 - The Wall Street Transcript has recently re-published its Q3 2009 Resorts and Casinos Report offering a recap of analyst and CEO predictions for the sector for serious investors and industry executives. This Special Feature contains expert industry commentary through in-depth interviews with public company CEOs, Equity Analysts and Money Managers. The full issue is available by calling (212) 952-7433 or via The Wall Street Transcript Online.

Topics covered: Las Vegas Room Base Increase - Macau Gaming Economics - Distressed Balance Sheets - Casinos Going Dark - Lodging Industry REVPAR Trends - Near Term Debt Maturities - Impact of Riverboat Gaming - Trends in the Gaming Sector - Decline of Atlantic City - New Gaming Technology Developments - Stock Winners and Losers

Companies include: MGM Mirage (MGM); Wynn (WYNN); Las Vegas Sands (LVS); International Game Technology (IGT); Bally Technologies (BYI); WMS Industries (WMS); Shuffle Master (SHFL); Penn National (PENN); Ameristar (ASCA) Marriot International (MAR); Starwood (HOT); Boyd Gaming (BYD); Nevada Gold (UWN); ILX Resorts (ILX); Isle of Capri Casinos (ISLE); Youbet.com (UBET).

In the following brief excerpt from just one of the in depth interviews in this Special Report, the CEO of MGM Mirage discussed the outlook for his company, his industry, and for investors.

Jim Murren is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of MGM Mirage, a Las Vegas-based company with significant holdings in gaming, hospitality and entertainment. Mr. Murren joined MGM Mirage in 1998 as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, having held various positions, including President and Chief Operating Officer, before being named Chairman and CEO late last year. Previously, Mr. Murren spent 14 years on Wall Street as a top-ranked equity analyst, joining C.J. Lawrence, Inc. (later merged into Deutsche Morgan Grenfell). Mr. Murren is currently a member of the Board of Directors of Delta Petroleum, a Denver, Colo., energy company. He received his Bachelor of Arts degree in art history and urban studies from Trinity College in 1983.

TWST: There's been a lot of discussion recently that with the opening of CityCenter and some other projects, Las Vegas will be over capacity. What do you think?

Mr. Murren: Well, at the risk of showing you how old I am, I started covering this industry as a junior analyst back in 1984 and picked up the industry in earnest in 1987. And I could name the analysts who have lost their jobs over those many years predicting the doom of Las Vegas. The year when Mirage opened was supposed to create a tremendous disruption in 1990, and of course 1990 was a huge year for Las Vegas. And 1993, when Luxor, Treasure Island and MGM Grand opened up, two analysts predicted the doom of Las Vegas in 1994. And those analysts are off the radar today. And of course that happened more recently in 1998 when Bellagio opened up; it was supposed to be an extraordinarily, over-the-top, excessive, overly expensive property that could not possibly get a return, and it's the most profitable casino in Las Vegas today. So it is easy to dismiss the critics because they've been wrong every time.

But I think there is more merit to the point of view today because of the recession that we're in, the failure or lack of success of many projects that have opened recently and the sincere concern that people have that we're opening up too many rooms at too quick a time. So my answer is, "We'll see." But we're a little more analytical than that. So my view is that if we accomplish what I think we will accomplish in terms of developing something that is vastly different than what exists today, that will attract incrementally hundreds of thousands, if not millions more people to the community because of something incrementally different and distinct and important, then we will drive overall visitation in Las Vegas at its most crucial times. And I think CityCenter alone, single-handedly, will be the reason why visitation is up in 2010 in Las Vegas versus 2009. And if we do it correctly, we'll get a premium for whatever the market can bear at that point in time when prices go up and down. But we should get a premium for the occupancy of those buildings; and if that's the case, then our property should be able to draft off of that and actually benefit from not only the foot traffic that will ensue as a result of this development, but the pricing that we're going to achieve. If we're simply building a casino hotel or adding hotel towers to existing buildings or adding casino capacity to existing buildings, I would say that they are dead right. There is no way you could call that a positive development. But on the other hand, we are doing something that has gotten the attention of the world, and we know it's going to bring incremental people by the millions to Las Vegas.

I think the trick will be whether or not we can build incremental business not only on the hotel side, but on the gaming side, and whether we cannibalize properties that we own 100% of by just shifting business over to a 50-50 joint venture while still managing that property to the benefit of the joint venture owners Dubai World and ourselves. And that's why we've spent a lot of time on this, and I think we've accomplished that in the design of it, and we have to execute on the operation of it.

TWST: There's been a lot of talk that Las Vegas will never return to its 2006, 2007 peaks. What's your view?

Mr. Murren: I'm always amused by that point, as if people know what factor they have at their disposal to say that Las Vegas will never return. That is absurd to the extreme. Las Vegas has been around as a tourist destination for 70 years. It's lived through recession. It's lived through wars. It's lived through global crisis. It's lived through 9/11. It's lived through local disturbances, the collapse of the defense industry in California, $5 gas prices, and on and on. And, yes, we lived in a world of excess, consumer excess in 2007, 2006 maybe also. But Las Vegas has persevered and flourished in every type of economy for decades. There is no other Las Vegas and there never will be. And so unless the population stops growing in the United States and people stop traveling, and people stop going on vacations, there is no factual basis to say that Las Vegas cannot continue to grow.

Thirty-five million people will be there this year in the heart of a recession, and more people will come next year. And it will remain the top destination in the United States. And with all that, we have the flexibility to cater and to tailor vacation packages and experiences to whatever the economy may throw at us. So sure, we're not going to sell as many $1,000 bottles of wine and $400 and $500 cabanas at a pool in the middle of a recession. But we can occupy 3,000-, 4,000-, 5,000-room hotels at over 90% occupancy. Even though we're charging less, we sure can make money at that. And I feel that the recovery that we will experience is not a matter of whether it will happen, it's how long it will take for us to get back to 2004 through 2007 levels. And I think it's going to be gradual. And we've set up a cost structure here that will allow us to be profitable during this gradual recovery. And what's important to my team is that we do not allow our cost structure to grow with revenue so that as revenue does improve, we're able to bring more to the bottom line and be more profitable.

This business is not particularly difficult. It's not complicated. It is a consumer-based business, a cash-based business model with high margins. And so I don't know how many businesses are running in high 20s operating margins as we are right now and generating 90%-plus occupancies. Our issue is not the business model. Our issue is that we have too much debt for our current level of cash flow because our cash flow fell so rapidly during the severe recession. Now that our cash flow has stabilized, we have our cash flow starting to improve and our debt levels declining. And that's a good formula for long-term success. I'm not optimistic to the point where I think we're going to have a sharp recovery, but I think there is no doubt that we're going to have a recovery. And there is no factual basis to say that Las Vegas won't come back.

JIM MURREN

Chairman & CEO

MGM Mirage

The Wall Street Transcript is a unique service for investors and industry researchers - providing fresh commentary and insight through verbatim interviews with CEOs and research analysts. This special issue is available via The Wall Street Transcript Online or by calling (212) 952-7433.

The Wall Street Transcript does not endorse the views of any interviewees nor does it make stock recommendations.

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