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Three Stocks Buffett Would Love
Friday November 20, 1:26 pm ET
ByJohn Reese, RealMoney Contributor

The much-watched Warren Buffett made headlines recently with his landmark purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe . When Buffett makes such a large acquisition, it is tempting to try to anticipate his next move and buy companies that seem likely to attract his interest. I do not believe that makes for a compelling investment strategy -- no one but Buffett knows what he is looking at now, and buying prospective targets could put you into stocks that are poor investments.

So I won't play the game of "What will Warren buy next?" However, I have long used a computerized strategy based on Buffett's investment approach to pick stocks, and I think this is a good time to take a look at stocks that get high grades from this strategy. Like Buffett himself, this strategy has performed well; this year it is up 38.4%, compared with the S&P 500's 21.0%.

One company that passes the Buffett test is China Mobile , the largest provider of mobile phone services in China. The Buffett strategy favors companies with dominant market positions, and that is certainly true of China Mobile. Predictability of earnings-per-share growth is another variable the strategy tracks, and China Mobile's EPS has gone up in each of the past 10 years. Debt is less than 10% of earnings, which means it can be paid off in a couple of months, which is exceptional.

Return on equity has averaged 23.1% over the past 10 years, which is great, while return on total capital has been just as impressive, having averaged 20.8% in the past decade. This strategy also looks at a company's prospects and current stock price and projects how much investors are likely to earn annually if they buy the stock. Usually, the strategy wants a projected 15% return, though sometimes it will accept a bit less. This is no problem for China Mobile -- its projected annualized return to investors is 18.1%, which is excellent.

Swiss-based Mettler-Toledo International is another stock that passes muster with my Buffett "guru strategy". The company is known primarily for its weighing instruments, which it manufacturers for the food-retailing, laboratory and industrial markets. It reportedly has a market share in excess of 50%, which fits nicely into the Buffett's strategy of investing in companies with strong market positions. This company's EPS has been reasonably predictable, having increased in nine of the past 10 years. Earnings can pay off debt within two years, which is very good.

Return on equity is a robust 25.1%, while return on total capital is an acceptable 13.6%. Management has been earning 16.5% on retained earnings, an impressive showing. And the strategy calculates that investors will earn a superb 18.1% a year over the next 10 years when buying the stock today.

Today's final pick based on my Buffett strategy is Fastenal , a major retailer of such industrial products as abrasives, fasteners (anchors, bolts, nails, et al), hydraulics and janitorial supplies, among many others, which are sold via a chain of more than 2,300 stores. Its large market position makes it a Buffett-type company. Earnings per share have increased in nine of the past 10 years, while the company is in the enviable position of not having any debt. Over the past 10 years, the company has enjoyed strong annual returns on both equity and total capital -- 20.1% a year for each of these variables -- while earning a strong 21.2% on retained earnings. And investors can expect to earn a very nice 15.8% annually on their investment.

Well priced with strong market positions and solid track records of growth and profitability, these three companies seem poised to perform well in the coming years. Buffett may not buy any of them personally, but these companies all fit nicely into his approach to investing as I understand it, and they're good investment prospects no matter what Buffett does.


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At the time of publication, Reese was long MTD, FAST and CHL, although holdings can change at any time.

John P. Reese is founder and CEO of Validea.com, an investment research firm, and Validea Capital Management, an asset management firm serving affluent investors and companies. He is also co-author of two investing books, including The Guru Investor: How to Beat the Market Using History's Best Investment Strategies (Wiley). Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Reese appreciates your feedback. Click here to send him an email.

TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Amazon.com under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Amazon purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.


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